Sneak preview of Tesla robotaxi rolling out in June:
Start with model Y first, there is legislative consideration as well as existing Tesla owners participation
When Waymo launched commercially in 2023, its miles between interventions were 17K miles (95K-100K miles now, some repoets 130K miles); Tesla today is at 12K miles between critical intervention
Waymo logs 0.41 accident per million miles, Tesla FSD reports 0.3 accident per million miles (web reported autopilot 0.13 is highway data so it’s biased)
Tesla cybercab costs $30K, model Y around $50K, Waymo costs $180K to start with and now costs about $130K
Waymo rides charges about $3.5-5/mile; Uber charges about $2.5/mile, still losing money but expect to do better with increased volumes ; Tesla robotaxi expects to cost $0.3 for cybercab, price maybe $0.5-$0.6/mile
Tesla currently has 300 robotaxi tesla drivers in Austin. The first public participation was April 2024 on “We Robot” day when there were 19 cyber cans and 29 driverless model Y provided 2000 rides to event attendees
Elon Musk is having meeting with robotaxi team this weekend, and will turn his focus from DOGE back to Tesla
Initially Tesla is expected to rollout 10-20 model Ys to public, probably for free trial. Some call it a nonevent, what do you think?
I don’t expect everything to be smooth but successful launch within one year is good enough for my expectations
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